Your vote is secret?

Election is coming and for many years there have been rumours and misgivings that voting is not confidential and it is best to vote for XX party to avoid any ‘harm’ to himself and family members. Basically people are intimidated by the doubt of balloting privacy existence.

I know this may sound abit strange to discuss such political topic in this blog but this article is directly related to Information Security. Think about this – If this particular information is leaked out to the public, wouldn’t it become a very big hoo-hah?

Everyone knows that fear itself is irrational and at times, hard to predict on its side-effect, largely due to the uncertainties or consequences. Thus this topic of risk management is to help us;

•          Identify the risk/activity and provide a rating/importance to the pertaining risk

•          Identify the emerging threat/slide effects that are caused by the risk. This itself also will allow us to understand what additional controls/prevention are there to reduce the risk

There are many ways/methodologies to conduct risk assessment and it will be a very lengthy process if we would to adapt to the exact approach. For the sake of all readers – I would simplify this and try to make it as “user friendly” as possible. You can refer to this link if you are keen to understand more. However for those who are familiar to risk management and find my approach somehow not inline to the mainstream approach – That’s because I’m tailoring this for the sake of everyone’s easy reading.

Now to begin with, you will see my approach and assessment in the following manner:

1. Identify the risk scenario (In this case – Election/Voting is rigged)
2. Identify the threat scenario/description when risk has occurred
3. Classify/rate the risk level:

• Impact of the risk
• Severity of the risk
• Likelihood of the risk

1. 4.      Mitigating solution/approach to reduce risk.

Identify the risk scenario

This would be quite straight forward as the risk itself is the topic of this article - “If election/votingis rigged”.

Identify the threat scenario/description when risk has occurred

Identifying risk/threat is a process to predict the result/consequence when risk occurs. This would be quite easy to predict but at the same time it is very tricky as well as it depends on which side of the fence are you are sitting on. Remember – The following can only be true if the above risk scenario has occurred:

• Reputation integrity and etc will be tarnish,
• Loss of public confidence that may result to anger and etc

Classify/rate the risk level:

Classifying/rating the risk level is a very important step to allow us to have better understanding and estimate the consequence if a particular risk occurs.Identifying risk will allow us to understand, plan and address the risk accords. Example if the risk is low,then we may not need tons of control to address this risk. Likewise if the risk is high, we would need to put in more emphasis to reduce the risk from happening.

Below are the quick explanations on each type of risk:

Impact of the risk	This would mean how much does it affect to the individual/country when happens. Example if Bob does not pass his PSLE – He will not able to go the Secondary School
Severity of the risk	Severity means how dangerous it would be if it happens. Again on using above example if Bob failed his PSLE – It means he might not have good career in future or in other words – How important is it for him to pass this exam.
Likelihood of the risk	Likelihood would mean what the possibility is for it to happen. Example, if Bob has been study hard enough in preparation of the exam – Then it is very unlikely he will fail the exam.

Below is the actual rating I provide. I will explain further as we go go along:

Risk Level to the Country when Occurs		Remark
Impact	High	If happens, the impact would or may cause the entire country to collapse. Remember such event would cause great credibility of the government. This means once risk has occurred, the pertaining threat will affect everyone in the country be it individual, companies, government agencies or anyone who resides in the country. Due to the size of the impact the level should be rated as high.
Severity	High	Over here would be the side effects if it occurs. Riot may take place, investors will pull out, lots will be out of jobs and economy might collapse are some of the examples. As you can see, the side-effects affect country international standings and credibility. This would take a long period of time and major efforts to restore back to original. Therefore, the severity of this risk is high again.
Likelihood	Maybe (Low)	Think about it – Is it possible to happen? In order to make this possible, it will take lots of efforts and resources. Therefore it is rated as low. I will explain further in the following paragraph

 Mitigating solution/approach to reduce risk

Basically the  mitigating solution/approach is to address/provide to the risk & threat itself. You can look into various ways to address it – Reduce the risk level by targeting on the risk scenario or threat that may occurred. In commercial arenas for example; corporate companies may buy insurance or build additional office to reduce the impact or severity of the risk.

However in most cases, reducing the Impact or Severity is usually quite difficult and this is relates to risk scenario itself. Why? Singapore Election involves every citizen in the country. That’s by law, can’t be change and also it will defeat the purpose if voting only applicable to certain group of people. Likewise reducing the Severity is near impossible as it is closely related to Impact. The only possible way to reduce or rather take away this risk is to abolish the election system. So Likelihood is the only sub-risk that we can work to  reduce the possibility of occurrance. 

I’m not sure if you know that there are certain guideline/process that an electoral system has to be conducted as per international standards. You can refer to the following links for further reading:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secret_ballot

So what are some of the myths that have been hanging in the air? I will try to answer some of the myths or doubts below:

Ques: There’s a serial number on my voting slip. Can I be traced? Ans: Contrary to some belief, having a serial number on the voting slip is a requirement for the authenticity of each vote. Furthermore this is for audit purpose when required should there be a dispute of the votes later on.

Ques: GOV will know and “mark” me if I vote against them Ans: Think about it – There’s total of 2mil of votes and GOV would need a lot of resources to do that. Do you think it’s logical to do so? Furthermore personnel involved in the election are ordinary people like you and me. If this is true, then it won’t be a myth but a known fact without official acknowledgement. Lastly do you see any of your friends who disappeared into thin air?

Ques: My job is at risk if I vote against…. Ans: Again there’s no proof at all. It’s all hearsay and let me share this with you. I know of people who voted for non-gov parties or his/her life and yet, still got into a gov board.. Guess you have to convince yourself, not me.

Ques: Election officers are all public servant who works for the gov. Ans: 1st – They are just like you and me, who are normal citizens. Plus there are certain procedures and processes that have to follow the International requirement (Refer to link above)… So I’ll be very surprised if someone is able to convince so many people to do something ‘funny’. 2ns – Candidates can send its own personnel as observers during voting. In additional, organization like UN can do likewise as well. Also MARUAH has expressed interest to be an independent observer for this election.

Ques: GLC, Civil Service Officer must vote for ruling gov – Else your job will be lost. Ans: 1st – Again as I’ve mentioned above, it’s is near impossible to do that and I would say is purely fear that let you feel that. All I can say is have you heard anyone lost job because of this?

Conclusion

Election results are critical to a country and the authenticity of it is very important.. If not, I doubt the future government will not able to survive for too long. Therefore securing & ensuring, secrecy of the information & voting plays a very big part of it. Likewise using a systemic risk assessment/methodology will allow us to prepare better and understand what's necessary control require to achieve that.

I hope this article has provided you enough information and knowledge to make a choice of your own with much ease.

HAPPY VOTING!!!